Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 56259.486450 59594.366183 62935.681270 66531.949576 70290.514312 74100.066030 78250.498914
2024-11-03 51231.009648 56341.245266 61611.331286 67443.789775 73709.123281 80228.560903 87516.548693
2024-11-10 47641.894762 53962.424400 60629.361303 68168.044065 76437.434747 85214.189573 95215.434100
2024-11-17 44670.637990 51873.771275 59617.062720 68530.818292 78478.528101 89208.468185 101626.425616
2024-11-24 42027.666263 49897.048631 58499.473935 68558.649133 79954.054900 92417.901252 107035.253903
2024-12-01 39966.184550 48406.158400 57772.139058 68878.166532 81627.262523 95743.341688 112491.288321
2024-12-08 38015.609047 46909.607759 56918.414882 68940.703921 82910.341073 98551.278738 117304.283817
2024-12-15 36838.285907 46228.015641 56928.448506 69930.487579 85202.582113 102471.122737 123367.614089
2024-12-22 35154.889921 44857.831035 56053.533225 69812.303670 86144.651143 104789.787471 127554.541998
2024-12-29 34292.298919 44416.809784 56229.475989 70893.309860 88463.144915 108690.782722 133581.756540
2025-01-05 33304.056829 43770.448264 56114.551872 71587.903842 90294.790624 112006.036503 138922.889710
2025-01-12 32042.904603 42732.864141 55477.360150 71607.840253 91283.063363 114300.465864 143046.514153
2025-01-19 30712.312679 41573.827957 54665.734841 71398.938664 91992.710801 116277.665614 146829.680687
2025-01-26 30076.759352 41261.724696 54876.433228 72430.088840 94205.446934 120065.150384 152808.447445
2025-02-02 29365.599361 40821.433217 54901.158396 73209.954474 96098.317859 123466.399162 158336.440820
2025-02-09 28517.577296 40170.617962 54631.625390 73596.602125 97487.601376 126248.195231 163118.142061
2025-02-16 27558.662178 39339.781757 54101.900334 73626.577307 98410.686325 128446.744876 167185.934135
2025-02-23 26791.636993 38732.324360 53832.479507 73964.917642 99704.400946 131094.740692 171810.858188
2025-03-02 25949.398175 37995.180063 53369.124930 74031.137238 100636.642922 133285.568382 175872.067448
2025-03-09 25566.161101 37857.758851 53673.361823 75078.797675 102814.113636 137034.743589 181889.495517
2025-03-16 24719.731290 37064.668969 53092.407196 74953.713200 103474.674868 138874.610457 185523.047412
2025-03-23 24425.880921 37015.218505 53485.406282 76097.756018 105769.423751 142781.968473 191773.528500
2025-03-30 23985.621797 36747.589660 53574.873402 76832.749442 107531.757610 146020.795350 197197.881440